The Cleveland Browns (11-5) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) in the AFC Divisional Round Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Browns-Chiefs odds, spread and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
2018 Kansas City Chiefs Statistics & Players: 12-4 (po:1-1) (1st in AFC West), Coach: Andy Reid, ProBowl: Fisher, Ford, Hill, Kelce, Mahomes, Sherman. Over/under: New England Patriots: 11 wins: New Orleans Saints: 10 1/2 wins: Los Angeles Rams: 10 1/2 wins: Kanas City Chiefs: 10 wins: Chicago Bears: 9 1/2 wins: Green Bay Packers: 9 1/2 wins. Result: Patriots, 43-40; Spread: Chiefs +4; Over/Under: 59.5; Mahomes and Brady had nearly identical completions and yards in their first ever meeting: Mahomes: 23-of-36 completions for 352 yards; Brady: 24-of-35 completions for 340 yards; The key difference? Mahomes threw four touchdowns to two interceptions while Brady tossed one score and no picks. Winner: Chiefs Spread Pick: Chiefs. Browns vs Chiefs Betting Trends - Kansas. It means a bettor needs to risk $180 for every $100 they want to win. For every $100 risked on the Ravens, a bettor would win $160. You don’t need to bet $100. It’s helpful to think of American odds in cents rather than dollars - i.e. For every $1.80 risked on the Chiefs, you win $1.00; for every $1.00 risked on the Ravens, you win $1.60.
Browns at Chiefs: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:17 p.m. ET.
Money line: Browns +375 (bet $100 to win $375) Chiefs -500 (bet $500 to win $100)Against the spread/ATS: Browns +9.5 (-110) Chiefs -9.5 (-110)Over/Under: 57.5 (O: -110 U: -110)Special NFL Playoffs Betting Promotion!
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Browns at Chiefs: Game notes
The Browns are coming off a huge 48-37 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers and emotions are running high as they continue to be underestimated and looked past. This isn’t your classic Browns team.The Chiefs had a Bye last week as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.These teams have only met three times since 2013, with the Chiefs winning all three. The last time they met was Nov. 4, 2018, a Chiefs 37-21 victory. The Browns are significantly better since that meeting.After throwing seven interceptions in the first two months of the season, Browns QB Baker Mayfield has been insanely safe with the football since November – he’s thrown just one interception since then compared to 11 TD passes. He was an effective 21-for-34 for 263 yards and 3 TDs last weekend.Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) is a game-time decision after not practicing the past two days. Without him, the Chiefs may be rather one-dimensional unless RBs Le’Veon Bell and Darrell Williams can elevate their game.The Chiefs ranked 16th in the league in rushing yards during the season.The Browns gave up the 11th most passing yards during the regular season (247.6 yards per game) and the 8th-most passing touchdowns (1.9 TDs per game). They gave up a massive 501 yards and four passing touchdowns last week to the Steelers. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (4,740 passing yards, 38 TDs, 6 INT) could have a field day.Browns at Chiefs: Key injuries
Browns
T Jack Conklin (hamstring, knee) questionableLB B.J. Goodson
(shoulder) questionableTE David Njoku (hamstring) questionableTE Stephen Carlson (groin) questionableChiefs
WR Sammy Watkins (calf) outLB
Willie Gay
(ankle) outRB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) questionableCB Rashad Fenton (foot, ankle) questionableTE Deon Yelder (groin) questionableBrowns at Chiefs: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Chiefs 32, Browns 27
Money line (?)
If you like the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs to advance to the AFC Championship, you won’t find value on the money line at -500. Risking $500 for a $100 profit just isn’t smart betting even if you’re typically a chalk bettor.
I’m considering a small-unit wager on a Cleveland upset. The +375 is a tempting return. After all we’ve seen the past six months, would a Browns victory be that hard to believe? Exactly.
Against the spread (?)
While the Chiefs were 6th in total touchdowns (57) in 2020, they covered just once in the final eight games and were 7-9 ATS overall. The Browns weren’t a great spread team, either, going 6-10 during the season.
The Chiefs opened as 10-point favorites and the line adjusted down slightly to 9.5 (110 on both sides). The Browns, who were third in the NFL in rushing with 148.4 YPG, will try to control the tempo with their rushing tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and keep this one close.
BET THE BROWNS TO COVER 9.5 (-110).
Over/Under (?)
To hit 57.5 (-110 on both sides), which is the highest total on this weekend’s slate by a lot, it’s going to take a decent amount of scoring. Both of these teams can do just that. Cleveland averaged 25.5 points per game and K.C. averaged 29.6. The Browns were 9-7 vs. the O/U while the Chiefs were 8-8 during the regular season.
The lean is a one-unit wager on the OVER, but you will sweat this out until late in the 4th quarter, especially if Cleveland can chew clock with its running game.
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Also see:
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Chiefs Over Under Wins 2018
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